OPINION: Strange Bedfellows on the Brink of the Same Fate

Trailing 20 points in the most recent polls, dogged by a faltering economy, and burdened by tenures that have grown stale and divisive, the next general election hinges on a simple premise: is it time for change, or can the incumbents still be trusted?

If you think this analysis is about the Canadian election scheduled for October 2025, you are correct. But if you think it describes the upcoming July 4th, 2024, UK General Election, you are equally correct. Despite being on opposite ends of the political spectrum, the upcoming elections for Justin Trudeau in Canada and Rishi Sunak in the UK share striking similarities.

Both Trudeau and Sunak are leaders of governments that have become long in the tooth. Trudeau first took office in 2015, while the UK Conservative Party has been in power in the UK since 2010.

The UK has seen a succession of Conservative Prime Ministers – David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and the brief tenure of Liz Truss – culminating in Rishi Sunak. Similarly, Trudeau's Liberals have navigated through multiple election cycles, maintaining their hold on power for nearly a decade.

The economies of both the UK and Canada have been severely hit in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic disruptions have left both countries grappling with slow growth, rising inflation, and mounting public dissatisfaction. Both governments are now perceived as fatigued, with voters increasingly skeptical of their ability to navigate through the economic malaise.

The notion of a "Change Election" is palpable in both countries. In the UK, the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer is positioning itself as the new "government-in-waiting," promising tax cuts, government reform, and a brighter future. In Canada, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party are echoing similar sentiments, advocating for lower taxes, a streamlined government, and a fresh direction for the nation.

Polls indicate a significant lead for the opposition in both countries.

Starmer's Labour Party is polling about 20 points ahead of Sunak's Conservatives, while Poilievre's Conservatives hold a similar lead over Trudeau's Liberals. This sizeable gap underscores a profound public desire for change and sets the stage for highly contentious elections.

As Canada watches the UK’s election unfold, the Trudeau Liberals should be paying close attention to the strategies and outcomes. How Sunak navigates the election, the attacks he leverages against his opponents, and the public's response will all serve as crucial indicators for Trudeau.

If Sunak manages to defy the odds and secure a new mandate, it could provide a roadmap for Trudeau to clinch a coveted fourth term. Conversely, if Sunak faces a significant defeat, it might be a signal for Trudeau to reconsider his approach – or even contemplate an exit strategy.

Both elections will pivot on narratives of trust and change. For the incumbents, the challenge lies in convincing a weary electorate that they are still capable of delivering stability and growth.

For the opposition, the task is to present a credible and inspiring alternative without appearing too radical or untested. The balance between these narratives will ultimately determine the outcomes.

The results of the UK election will resonate beyond its borders. A victory for Starmer could embolden opposition parties worldwide, including Canada’s Conservatives. It would exemplify that a significant shift in governance is not only possible but desirable in the eyes of the electorate.

Conversely, a Sunak victory might offer a lifeline to embattled incumbents, demonstrating that a strong campaign can overcome adverse polling.

The stakes are high in the UK, not just for the immediate political futures of Sunak and Starmer, but for the broader democratic processes in similar parliamentary systems like Canada’s.

The outcome will provide valuable lessons and possibly set precedents that will influence political strategies and voter expectations in Canada’s 2025 election.