OPINION: The Silent Campaign in Saskatchewan’s Heartland

For the past two weeks, I have been travelling across Southern and Northern Saskatchewan, visiting towns and cities, speaking with mayors, councillors, and voters, and soaking in the electoral mood of this vast prairie province.

My aim was twofold: to gauge the political temperature in communities outside of the urban centres of Regina and Saskatoon, and to hear directly from municipal leaders about their hopes and concerns as we head into the second half of the provincial election campaign.

My journey through the heartland of Saskatchewan revealed more than just political rhetoric. It showed a deeply ingrained sense of frustration, disillusionment, and political inertia.

Having been involved in several elections — as a campaign worker, strategist, and even as a candidate — I’ve learned one thing: optics are everything. Campaign signs, public appearances, and door-knocking are all part of creating the perception that a candidate is serious, organized, and worthy of voters' attention. But driving through rural Saskatchewan, I couldn’t help but notice something strange: signs were few and far between.

Upon entering Saskatchewan through the Cypress Hills region, I was greeted by the familiar green of Saskatchewan Party signs, dotting the highway like prairie grass. But as I pushed further north, past Kindersley, the signs all but vanished. No signs along the highway, none in small urban centers, and certainly none in the lawns of rural homes. It wasn’t until I neared Perdue, a tiny village outside Saskatoon, that I began to see political signs for both the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP, and then, suddenly, I found myself in the midst of a full-blown "sign war" as I entered the Saskatoon area.

As far as rural Saskatchewan is concerned, though, it seems like this election is barely happening at all. Conversations with locals confirmed this sense of apathy.

In Rosthern-Shellbrook, two voters I encountered at a local Tim Hortons summed up the mood in their riding: “It’s a forgone conclusion here,” one said. “Why would I put up a sign for someone I know is going to win?” Another elderly man chimed in: “I’ll be blunt, I haven’t had a person at my door in the last six elections.” A young woman working at a gas station expressed a desire to vote for the NDP but felt it would be a wasted vote: “I think it’ll be a waste, so I might just stay home.”

The absence of campaign activity in many of these smaller communities is striking. While some might dismiss the lack of signs as a minor issue, I’d argue that it speaks to a deeper problem — a disengagement from the political process. Voters feel forgotten, and ignored by candidates who are too busy battling it out in Saskatoon and Regina to bother with rural ridings that are considered safe. For these residents, the election feels like something that happens to them, not something they actively participate in.

This sentiment was echoed by many of the municipal leaders I spoke with. Several mayors and councillors lamented that their local candidates seemed more focused on holding onto their urban strongholds than addressing rural concerns. One municipal leader told me flatly, “Our NDP candidate is a non-factor. They’re not even here; they’re in Regina trying to win seats there.” In a province where rural and urban voters have very different priorities, this lack of attention could be costly for both major parties.

While the political campaigns in Saskatchewan’s cities are in full swing, with signs sprouting up on every block and social media abuzz with campaign promises, rural voters feel largely left out. And this political vacuum is being filled with something unexpected: Trumpism. In several rural communities, particularly in Northern Saskatchewan, I saw an unusual number of Trump flags, bumper stickers, and even lawn signs left over from the 2020 U.S. election, with slogans like “Trump-Pence” still proudly displayed.

At first, it struck me as odd — after all, Saskatchewan voters have no reason to be influenced by U.S. politics, right? But in conversations with residents, it became clear that the appeal of Trump’s populism extends beyond the borders of the United States. The same anger at “Washington elites” and frustration with being ignored by the political establishment that fueled Trump’s rise is simmering here in rural Saskatchewan.

When I spoke with a woman in Stoughton over coffee, she was candid about her disillusionment. “They’re all liars,” she said. “None of them do anything for our areas. It’s all big city people and nothing for us.” It was a sentiment I heard time and time again.

Interestingly, this populist undercurrent seems to be benefiting the upstart Saskatchewan United Party (SUP), a right-wing alternative to the governing Saskatchewan Party. As I drove toward Weyburn, blue SUP signs started cropping up alongside the familiar green of the Saskatchewan Party and the orange of the NDP.

The SUP is still a relatively minor player in this election, but in rural areas like these, they could become a serious factor. If they manage to siphon off even a thousand votes in key ridings, it could be enough to tilt the balance and cause major headaches for the Saskatchewan Party.

The rise of the Saskatchewan United Party has parallels to what happened in Alberta in 2015 when vote-splitting on the right brought an end to the Progressive Conservatives’ 44-year reign. Years of infighting between Alberta’s PCs and the more hardline Wildrose Party allowed the NDP to slip through the cracks and win a stunning victory. Could the same thing happen in Saskatchewan? It’s not out of the question. Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party is still dominant, but cracks are starting to show, particularly in rural ridings where voters are feeling neglected. The presence of SUP signs suggests that some of these voters are looking for an alternative.

In my conversations with voters, municipal leaders, and even a few skeptical gas station attendants, it’s clear that this election is shaping up to be more complicated than it might appear. While the major parties — the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP — are locked in a fierce battle for control of Regina and Saskatoon, the rural heartland is being largely ignored. And in that vacuum, populism and political frustration are bubbling up, threatening to upend the conventional political wisdom that Saskatchewan is a foregone conclusion for the Saskatchewan Party.

Both Scott Moe and NDP leader Carla Beck face significant challenges in the weeks ahead. For Moe, the challenge is keeping his rural base engaged and preventing the rise of the Saskatchewan United Party from fracturing the right-wing vote. For Beck, the task is even steeper: she must find a way to connect with rural voters who feel alienated from the NDP and convince them that their votes won’t be wasted.

If the NDP wants to have any hope of forming the government, they need to take rural Saskatchewan seriously. It’s not enough to focus on Regina and Saskatoon; they must show up in the small towns and villages, knock on doors, and prove that they care about the concerns of farmers, small business owners, and everyday working people outside the cities.

The rural vote might not decide the election, but it could very well tip the scales in key ridings. And if they continue to ignore these voters, they may find themselves on the losing side once again.

As for the Saskatchewan Party, they can no longer afford to take their rural strongholds for granted. The blue signs of the Saskatchewan United Party serve as a warning: complacency could be costly. Moe will need to shore up his base, address the growing populist sentiment, and prove that his party is still the best option for rural voters. If he fails to do so, he - or his potential successor - may find themself facing the same fate as Alberta’s Jim Prentice in 2015.

This election may very well be decided by the optics — the signs, the door-knocking, the grassroots engagement and voter turnout. And right now, in rural Saskatchewan, those optics aren’t looking too good for either of the major parties.

And the only candidate who seems to be winning over hearts and minds, ironically, is Donald Trump — and he’s not even on the ballot.